By Tom Chiahemen

For the Chairman, Census Tribunal C in charge of Southwest, Hon. Chief (Mrs.) Ifeyinwa Mary Obegolu, last Saturday was a special day. As she celebrated her 62nd birthday and recalled the many good things that happened in her life within those years, it was clear that indeed, Obegolu had every reason to thank God.

INSIDE THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN TEAMS

For eight years (1999 – 2007), Dr. Nat Yaduma was the deputy Chief of Staff to the Vice President. As Director, Special Groups in the Atiku Abubakar presidential campaign organization, Yaduma predicts how the race for the ticket of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the subsequent presidential election in 2011 might end. He spoke to Political/Features Editor, Tom Chiahemen

From Ali Abare Abubakar, Lafia

Nigeria, with its landmass and huge population comprising diverse peoples and cultures, is a country where it will be quite impossible for a section to sustain political dominance without recourse to alliance or marriages of convenience with one group or the other.

Since the amalgamation of the southern and northern protectorates in 1914 to create the Nigerian enterprise, the interplay of regional idiosyncrasies and dominance has continued to characterize our politics, with each of the two prominent cultural enclaves, the North, and South, engaged in a cut-throat competition to control power at the centre.
Thus, even before the birth of the so-called largest party in Africa, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), an internal mechanism had emerged to regulate the distribution of elective offices among the groups, geared toward not only dissipating ill feeling and rancor, which may arise out of frustrations, but also engendering equitable spread of appointments and offices.
Though such initiatives have found official backing in the setting up of the Federal Character Commission (FCC) and similar agencies, sharing of power among the regions, which remains ever so contentious, is fraught with suspicion, distrust and outright malice.  Such open rivalry as existed between the otherwise extinct regions leaves no room for trust when it comes to sharing of power, but the winner- takes- all syndrome has become a permanent feature of our democracy.
In a true democracy however, all citizens are guaranteed equal treatment; equal opportunity to attain any height, and equal participation at all levels. But in a multi-ethnic society with a large number of nationalities such as Nigeria, one-man-one-vote ceases to fulfill the Western style democracy that works well in mono-ethnic countries of Europe. Also, the military's long intervention in the county's political landscape has not paved the way for a true democratic system to take off in Nigeria.
Such scenario as obtained in Europe, is virtually absent in our democracy and what exists is a constant agitation by separate nationalities, fusing and forming alliances, purposely for self perseverance and especially, for a share of the power at the centre.
Thus, from the First Republic, politicians across the regional divides have formed alliances to create governments, with each group seeking to protect and preserve its interest, with each group also, ever watchful so that the other party does nothing that could possibly tilt the power arrangement to its advantage.
In 1999, at the dawn of our present democratic dispensation, alliances were entered into by political actors, to the effect that Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, a Yoruba from southern Nigeria, emerged as president and was to serve for two terms. According to this alliance, which is now a subject of controversy, the power equation will shift in favour of the north when Obasanjo's tenure expires, with the north also to rule for another two terms.
With the death of former President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua however, and the decision by President Goodluck Jonathan to contest the 2011 presidential election, it is clear that once again, agitation between the regions for control of power at the centre, is about to take new dimensions. Particularly so, because the north is yet to exhaust its second term and therefore considers Jonathan's candidature as an aberration. As far as the north is concerned, Jonathan's claim that he can go ahead and contest because he was elected on a joint ticket with his late boss, amounts to nothing but a slight and a shameless display of ingratitude.
Thus, as the 2011 election year approaches, politicians once again are re-aligning and seeking alliances that will not only protect their collective interests, but also ensure they remain relevant in the power equation that will emerge.
And the controversy of the propriety or otherwise of Goodluck Jonathan to contest has pitched the polity into camps, rising the political stake, with each seeking to outdo the other in this high wire political game. So the people of the south have come out to support their son, insisting that Jonathan can go ahead and contest in spite of an early arrangement that favours the north. Northerners also are geared up and brazing up to confront anyone trying to set aside alliances entered into in 1999.
New political alliances are once again emerging as political stalwarts from the divide engage in the tasking effort to garner support and sell their point of views not only within regions but across. As already observed, no single regional entity can form government at the centre singly, without recourse to other sections the country.
To this end, the Goodluck Support Group (GSG) had begun a tour of the north, with a view to selling the candidature of their principal to the people. So far, GSG had visited among others, Kwarra, Niger, Benue, Nasarawa, Kano, Katsina, and Kaduna states.
Thus, for Jonathan to actualize his dream, he must somehow get across and find support from across the north. And despite the staunch opposition he is expected to encounter in the north, Jonathan continues to make inroads into the region, and a particular case in point, is the open support he enjoys from the Governor of Nasarawa state, Aliyu Akwe Doma.
When the GSG visited Nasarawa recently, Doma accorded the team warm reception, leaving no stone unturned to show his support as he welcomed the team, led by its Director-General, Ambassador Dalhatu Sarki Tafida in Lafia government house.
In his welcome speech, Doma reiterated his support for the Jonathan candidature, adding that, "Under normal circumstances, you people shouldn't come to Lafia. Coming to Lafia to me is like taking coal to Newcastle or what the English may say, preaching the gospel to the Pope. The people of Nasarawa state have since adapted Goodluck Jonathan as the president come 2011. It is only left for me as the governor and leader of our great party in the state to once again re-assure you of our commitment to the Goodluck Sambo presidential ticket. Everybody in Nasarawa is for Goodluck Sambo presidency."
Responding, Tafida explained the reason for their visit, saying, "We are here before you to solicit for support for our stakeholder, our aspirant. We know that he is qualified, as the head of the PDP family in Nasarawa state and before us all, other leaders of the party. We believe we should say why we believe Goodluck should contest for this office and should be given a chance. Goodluck found himself just through the act of God as he did not contest; he found himself there. He came along first with his former boss, late Umaru Musa Yar'Adua. After the death of our dear president, he became president. And he said he wants to contest properly, to finish the normal period which he and his boss would have completed."
In seeking to balance the political equation, Tafida introduced a new dimension into the argument, as he went on to justify the decision of his principal to contest, saying, "When I was a kid, when there was the Northern People's Congress (NPC), those days the government in power in the north, our major ally in the south was the Niger delta."
According to Tafida, during the First Republic, the north incurred a political debt when it sought the alliance of the Niger delta to form government at the federal level, at a point in time when rival political parties in the north, particularly the UMBC and NEPU will deny the NPC a majority at the centre, which the north is yet to settle but have the opportunity to pay back now, by supporting the Jonathan candidature.
So, as northerners continue opposing the emergence of Jonathan as the presidential candidate of the PDP, it is worthwhile to pose and ask whether the north should pay back its political debt, by supporting Jonathan's aspiration to become president come 2011.

By Adesoji Oyinlola, Lagos

Those who had expected that political activities by now should have taken off in full in Lagos state, no doubt, are disappointed. The stillness that pervades the state political process few months to the 2011 general election makes people wonder if the exercise will be postponed; no thanks to speculations making the round from the stakeholders ahead of the polls.