Peoples Daily

• Anxiety mounts over Jonathan, Atiku’s positions
• Confusion over Buhari’s
• Dark horses lie low
• What zones will get

By Richard Ihediwa

Still three years to the next Presidential elections in 2015, gladiators are already heading to the trenches. With the current outbursts from political big wigs and unfolding of political alignments of interests, it appears that the race has already started.
Already, speculators have started flying names of likable candidates with certain interest groups now testing the waters over the possibility of President Goodluck Jonathan running in the election though the President had told Nigerians during the 2011 elections that he was only going to serve for one term.
Those speculated to be eyeing the position three years ahead now include President Jonathan, Senate President David Mark, Vice President Namadi Sambo, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Military Head of State, Muhammadu Buhari, Niger state Governor Mu’azu Babangida Aliyu, Adamawa state governor, Murtala Nyako, Lagos state Governor Babantude Fashola, Ashiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Business Mogul, Aliko Dangote, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Lamido Sanusi Lamido, former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nasir El-Rufai, former Kwara Governor, Bukola Saraki among others.
Already, Buhari, who, after the 2011 election indicated that he might not contest the Presidency again was yesterday reported by the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) to have declared his intention to once more throw his hat into the ring. However, some chieftains of the party have raised doubts over the report.
This is especially as there have been reports of moves by the party to give its ticket to El-Rufai, who was said to have been endorsed by Buhari.
NAN reported yesterday that Buhari, who was Presidential candidate of the opposition Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) told a crowd of supporters in Kaduna that he would contest the election and that he will not quit politics until the “polity is sanitised and people enjoy the fruits of democracy at all levels of government.”
The report quoted Buhari as ensuring his supporters that the party will continue to field credible candidates at the polls and urged them to close ranks for victory in future elections. He was equally said to have charged security agencies, the judiciary and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to exhibit high degree of professionalism and patriotism at all times for the progress of the country, while urging the youths to shun acts of violence, thuggery and money politics to make their future better.
The position of the former military leader to come back to politics may not be unconnected with a desire to provide a formidable opposition for the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), especially amidst speculations that Jonathan may be persuaded to re-contest.
However, several factors would play out to determine where the political pendulum will swing. Critics believe that the key factor would be the decision by President Jonathan either to contest the election or not.
In fact, there are feelers that all presidential hopefuls within the PDP are now waiting eagerly for the President even as they are reading his body languages as well as those of his supporters.
If the President decides to run, it would be the end of the road for some hopefuls especially in the PDP.  If the President decides the honour his words and retire, then it will be a free for all fight among the political bigwigs in the party especially those from the North.
Will Jonathan re-contest?
For many, that it the billion naira question that has continued to bug the minds of Nigerians. Political observers are already piecing events, body languages and statements together to arrive an answer.
This is especially against the backdrop of outburst from elder statesmen such as Malam Adamu Ciroma and Ijaw leader, Chief Edwin Clark on the issue. This is in addition to recent endorsement of the President to re-contest by his kinsmen from the South South.
These came despite the warnings by President Jonathan in a recent PDP leadership meeting that party members should not campaign for him and other elected officials ahead of 2015.
He said, “Let me also plead that those who are interested in the general elections in 2015 should follow the rules. I have noticed that some people have just started some meetings, it is too early to hold meetings. The electoral laws and the constitution speak on this. INEC normally declares it open. The idea is that people who were elected to offices as governors and President (are) being given sometimes to work.
“In a situation whereby a governor has not even stayed for a year, the President has not stayed for a year, you start harassing people for 2015 is (another) way of saying everything is election.
“There must be time to (for) work at the federal level if you are holding a political office and I notice that you are involved in meetings for 2015 election, I will ask you to leave and go and hold your meetings, because that meeting is too early,” Jonathan had said.
Jonathan’s statement confirms that there are meetings for 2015 and statesmen like Alhaji Tanko Yakasai among others see such as a disservice to the nation. Yakasai, in an interview with Peoples Daily Weekend yesterday said it was unpatriotic for people to be talking of 2015, which he said would effectively distract elected officers from doing their works and service to the nation.
“Honestly, I prefer the stand taken by the President much earlier that people in government should be allowed to fulfill their election promises. It would be unpatriotic to start talking about candidature three years ahead of election, those who engage in this are not doing the country good. They should allow the elected officers to do their works and not distract them”, he said.
However, despite such cautions, the argument for the quest for power in 2015 persists even as key players have started speculated in power sharing formula among the six geo-political zones.
Following certain unfolding events, Ciroma has alerted that there are signs that Jonathan would re-contest adding that certain forces led by former President Olusegun Obasanjo were pushing him to do so.
Ciroma, who was Finance Minister under Obasanjo, also led the Northern Political Leaders Forum (NPLF) which stoutly resisted Jonathan’s moves to run for President in 2011 insisting that it was the turn of the north to produce the President in line with the zoning formula of the PDP.  In a recent interview, he said some northern governors are supporting the bid because they owe their offices to him but urged that such should be resisted.
Last Friday, the Ijaw leader, Edwin Clark said nobody can stop Jonathan if he desires to contest adding that such powers lie with the Nigerian people. Clark was reacting to statement credited to Second Republic governor of old Kaduna State, Alhaji Lawal Kaita, that the country risked a break-up if the North did not get the Presidency in 2015.
“Nigeria belongs to all of us; there is no second-class citizen in this country and that is why I sometimes find it very difficult to believe that our Northern brothers are still carrying on as if they are more Nigerian than other tribes”, Clark said.
That same weekend, political leaders from the South South zone let the cat out of the bag as they rallied in Lagos to endorse Jonathan for 2015. Though the leaders refused to make the details of the meeting public, sources hinted that they were strategising on ways to ensure that the zone retained the Presidency in 2015.
It was reported that during the meeting, many of the leaders spoke on the dangers of conceding the position to another regions and it was resolved that the Jonathan should be convinced to run for a second term.
Those pushing Jonathan to re-contest are arguing that he is covered by the constitution pointing out his tenure started at the point he was first elected and not at the point he was first sworn-in as President.
The cite section 137 (b) which states that a person shall not be qualified for election if he “has been elected to such office at any two previous elections”.
If Jonathan contests
Political watchers speculate that if Jonathan decides to run, then other ambitious politicians in the PDP may have to go home or become courageous enough to face him at the primary or join other parties to realise their ambitions.
If he runs, analysts see a power sharing formula that might no longer be based on zoning in the determination of who holds leadership positions at the center expect for the position of the Vice President, which will necessarily come from the north.
Currently, it is held that Vice President Sambo would be persuaded to queue behind Jonathan, though there are speculations that certain forces are now positioning former Kebbi state governor, Senator Adamu Aliero to replace Sambo. However, some critics do not see how this will play out as Sambo has proven to be a very loyal deputy to Jonathan.
It might not be an easy sail as Jonathan may still have to contend with ambitious politicians such as Atiku. However, there are speculations that the insistence on emergence of Alhaji Bamanga Tukur as National Chairman of the PDP is not unconnected with plans to ensure that Atiku does not contest on the platform of the PDP since he is from the same North East with Tukur.
Tukur, who was preferred by President Jonathan emerged National Chairman after several horse trading and high wired political influencing had lost to Musa Babayo in his home north east in the zonal convention and could not have clinched the position but for the backing of the Presidency. This led many to suspect that his emergence may have more than meet the eyes.
Also, if Jonathan contests, he will face very stiff opposition from other parties as there are speculations that the north would have learnt from the 2011 general election and might perfect a political gang-up against him.
However, there are fears that such gang-up might in itself not make desired impact especially as there are several political top brass from the north who are interested in the position and getting them to step down for a dark horse might prove an uphill task. Moves in the last election to get northern bigwigs to agree failed, leading to the splitting of votes in the region.
In any case, critics fear that Buhari and Atiku might at the dying minute decide to either step down for either of the other or drop their ambition and prop up a dark horse to face Jonathan.
In the case that Jonathan wins, power sharing for National Assembly leadership might no longer be based on party zoning formula but on ability of the zone with the highest number of members in either chambers to carry the day if they manage to put party and religious sentiments aside.
The Senate Presidency and the Speaker of the House of Representatives are expected to emerge through this method unless the ruling party succeeds in using certain methods to ensure an even power sharing formula.
If Jonathan does not contest
If the President decides not to contest, a free for all tussle is expected even when analysts believe that the one that gets the President’s anointing might carry the day.
Within the PDP, political watchers see a tussle between Senate President David Mark and Vice President Namadi Sambo for the ticket, though others, such as some governors will be on the side lines waiting to emerge as dark horses. Though Mark has not declared intentions and had cautioned that nobody should campaign for him, as according to him, he is currently preoccupied with his mandate as Senate President, some political watchers see him as very qualified for the position.
Mark seems well prepared for the role but, if he is interested, he must be ready to work on the elite of the core north to get their support especially as he has to face other powerful contenders from the position for that zone.
It is believed that Mark has very strong connections across the country and will build on that to secure support beyond the northern region. In the case that Mark is interested, then he has to start shopping for an acceptable southern muslim as a running mate for balance.
If that sails through, then there could be a power sharing formula that will see the other zones represented in the leadership of the National Assembly. There might be a scenario where a senator from any state in the south apart from where the Vice President would emerge from, becoming the Senate President, while another part of the north emerges the Speaker of the House of Representatives.
Also in the case that Sambo becomes interested, he must look for a trusted ally to emerge as his running mate from the South and perfect a power sharing formula that will give the other zones from the north apart from his home North West leadership positions in the National Assembly. In that case, there could be a situation where the Senate President might come from either the North Central or any South South as the North East would still be holding the national Chairmanship of the PDP.
However, if the candidates from other parties perfect a gang up against the PDP, and present a formidable candidate that will have the backing of all other parties, ambitious politicians in the ruling party might be forced to jettison their individual interests and allow for a stronger personality to rescue the party in the event that candidates like Fashola, with his track record in Lagos emerges as a candidate of a mega opposition party.
In that case, pundits believe that that could be where the party would need the incumbency factor that only Jonathan can give or the calm and calculative political cross country strategising that Mark would offer.
In any case, 2015 is still miles away, but in politics, structures are not built in a day. While the calculation and permutation continue, the caution by elders statesmen such as Yakasai must be taken into consideration especially as those in authority today must be made to give account of their stewardship at the end of the day.

while urging the youths to shun acts of violence, thuggery and money politics to make their future better.
The position of the former military leader to come back to politics may not be unconnected with a desire to provide a formidable opposition for the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), especially amidst speculations that Jonathan may be persuaded to re-contest.
However, several factors would play out to determine where the political pendulum will swing. Critics believe that the key factor would be the decision by President Jonathan either to contest the election or not.
In fact, there are feelers that all presidential hopefuls within the PDP are now waiting eagerly for the President even as they are reading his body languages as well as those of his supporters.
If the President decides to run, it would be the end of the road for some hopefuls especially in the PDP.  If the President decides the honour his words and retire, then it will be a free for all fight among the political bigwigs in the party especially those from the North.
Will Jonathan re-contest?
For many, that it the billion naira question that has continued to bug the minds of Nigerians. Political observers are already piecing events, body languages and statements together to arrive an answer.
This is especially against the backdrop of outburst from elder statesmen such as Malam Adamu Ciroma and Ijaw leader, Chief Edwin Clark on the issue. This is in addition to recent endorsement of the President to re-contest by his kinsmen from the South South.
These came despite the warnings by President Jonathan in a recent PDP leadership meeting that party members should not campaign for him and other elected officials ahead of 2015.
He said, “Let me also plead that those who are interested in the general elections in 2015 should follow the rules. I have noticed that some people have just started some meetings, it is too early to hold meetings. The electoral laws and the constitution speak on this. INEC normally declares it open. The idea is that people who were elected to offices as governors and President (are) being given sometimes to work.
“In a situation whereby a governor has not even stayed for a year, the President has not stayed for a year, you start harassing people for 2015 is (another) way of saying everything is election.
“There must be time to (for) work at the federal level if you are holding a political office and I notice that you are involved in meetings for 2015 election, I will ask you to leave and go and hold your meetings, because that meeting is too early,” Jonathan had said.
Jonathan’s statement confirms that there are meetings for 2015 and statesmen like Alhaji Tanko Yakasai among others see such as a disservice to the nation. Yakasai, in an interview with Peoples Daily Weekend yesterday said it was unpatriotic for people to be talking of 2015, which he said would effectively distract elected officers from doing their works and service to the nation.
“Honestly, I prefer the stand taken by the President much earlier that people in government should be allowed to fulfill their election promises. It would be unpatriotic to start talking about candidature three years ahead of election, those who engage in this are not doing the country good. They should allow the elected officers to do their works and not distract them”, he said.
However, despite such cautions, the argument for the quest for power in 2015 persists even as key players have started speculated in power sharing formula among the six geo-political zones.
Following certain unfolding events, Ciroma has alerted that there are signs that Jonathan would re-contest adding that certain forces led by former President Olusegun Obasanjo were pushing him to do so.
Ciroma, who was Finance Minister under Obasanjo, also led the Northern Political Leaders Forum (NPLF) which stoutly resisted Jonathan’s moves to run for President in 2011 insisting that it was the turn of the north to produce the President in line with the zoning formula of the PDP.  In a recent interview, he said some northern governors are supporting the bid because they owe their offices to him but urged that such should be resisted.
Last Friday, the Ijaw leader, Edwin Clark said nobody can stop Jonathan if he desires to contest adding that such powers lie with the Nigerian people. Clark was reacting to statement credited to Second Republic governor of old Kaduna State, Alhaji Lawal Kaita, that the country risked a break-up if the North did not get the Presidency in 2015.
“Nigeria belongs to all of us; there is no second-class citizen in this country and that is why I sometimes find it very difficult to believe that our Northern brothers are still carrying on as if they are more Nigerian than other tribes”, Clark said.
That same weekend, political leaders from the South South zone let the cat out of the bag as they rallied in Lagos to endorse Jonathan for 2015. Though the leaders refused to make the details of the meeting public, sources hinted that they were strategising on ways to ensure that the zone retained the Presidency in 2015.
It was reported that during the meeting, many of the leaders spoke on the dangers of conceding the position to another regions and it was resolved that the Jonathan should be convinced to run for a second term.
Those pushing Jonathan to re-contest are arguing that he is covered by the constitution pointing out his tenure started at the point he was first elected and not at the point he was first sworn-in as President.
The cite section 137 (b) which states that a person shall not be qualified for election if he “has been elected to such office at any two previous elections”.
If Jonathan contests
Political watchers speculate that if Jonathan decides to run, then other ambitious politicians in the PDP may have to go home or become courageous enough to face him at the primary or join other parties to realise their ambitions.
If he runs, analysts see a power sharing formula that might no longer be based on zoning in the determination of who holds leadership positions at the center expect for the position of the Vice President, which will necessarily come from the north.
Currently, it is held that Vice President Sambo would be persuaded to queue behind Jonathan, though there are speculations that certain forces are now positioning former Kebbi state governor, Senator Adamu Aliero to replace Sambo. However, some critics do not see how this will play out as Sambo has proven to be a very loyal deputy to Jonathan.
It might not be an easy sail as Jonathan may still have to contend with ambitious politicians such as Atiku. However, there are speculations that the insistence on emergence of Alhaji Bamanga Tukur as National Chairman of the PDP is not unconnected with plans to ensure that Atiku does not contest on the platform of the PDP since he is from the same North East with Tukur.
Tukur, who was preferred by President Jonathan emerged National Chairman after several horse trading and high wired political influencing had lost to Musa Babayo in his home north east in the zonal convention and could not have clinched the position but for the backing of the Presidency. This led many to suspect that his emergence may have more than meet the eyes.
Also, if Jonathan contests, he will face very stiff opposition from other parties as there are speculations that the north would have learnt from the 2011 general election and might perfect a political gang-up against him.
However, there are fears that such gang-up might in itself not make desired impact especially as there are several political top brass from the north who are interested in the position and getting them to step down for a dark horse might prove an uphill task. Moves in the last election to get northern bigwigs to agree failed, leading to the splitting of votes in the region.
In any case, critics fear that Buhari and Atiku might at the dying minute decide to either step down for either of the other or drop their ambition and prop up a dark horse to face Jonathan.
In the case that Jonathan wins, power sharing for National Assembly leadership might no longer be based on party zoning formula but on ability of the zone with the highest number of members in either chambers to carry the day if they manage to put party and religious sentiments aside.
The Senate Presidency and the Speaker of the House of Representatives are expected to emerge through this method unless the ruling party succeeds in using certain methods to ensure an even power sharing formula.
If Jonathan does not contest
If the President decides not to contest, a free for all tussle is expected even when analysts believe that the one that gets the President’s anointing might carry the day.
Within the PDP, political watchers see a tussle between Senate President David Mark and Vice President Namadi Sambo for the ticket, though others, such as some governors will be on the side lines waiting to emerge as dark horses. Though Mark has not declared intentions and had cautioned that nobody should campaign for him, as according to him, he is currently preoccupied with his mandate as Senate President, some political watchers see him as very qualified for the position.
Mark seems well prepared for the role but, if he is interested, he must be ready to work on the elite of the core north to get their support especially as he has to face other powerful contenders from the position for that zone.
It is believed that Mark has very strong connections across the country and will build on that to secure support beyond the northern region. In the case that Mark is interested, then he has to start shopping for an acceptable southern muslim as a running mate for balance.
If that sails through, then there could be a power sharing formula that will see the other zones represented in the leadership of the National Assembly. There might be a scenario where a senator from any state in the south apart from where the Vice President would emerge from, becoming the Senate President, while another part of the north emerges the Speaker of the House of Representatives.
Also in the case that Sambo becomes interested, he must look for a trusted ally to emerge as his running mate from the South and perfect a power sharing formula that will give the other zones from the north apart from his home North West leadership positions in the National Assembly. In that case, there could be a situation where the Senate President might come from either the North Central or any South South as the North East would still be holding the national Chairmanship of the PDP.
However, if the candidates from other parties perfect a gang up against the PDP, and present a formidable candidate that will have the backing of all other parties, ambitious politicians in the ruling party might be forced to jettison their individual interests and allow for a stronger personality to rescue the party in the event that candidates like Fashola, with his track record in Lagos emerges as a candidate of a mega opposition party.
In that case, pundits believe that that could be where the party would need the incumbency factor that only Jonathan can give or the calm and calculative political cross country strategising that Mark would offer.
In any case, 2015 is still miles away, but in politics, structures are not built in a day. While the calculation and permutation continue, the caution by elders statesmen such as Yakasai must be taken into consideration especially as those in authority today must be made to give account of their stewardship at the end of the day.

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