Peoples Daily

By Abdu Labaran Malumfashi & Musa Simon Reef

Few months to the ruling Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) national convention to determine its presidential flag bearer for the 2011 election, the raging controversy over the propriety or otherwise of President Goodluck Jonathan contesting the election would seem to have reached an anti-climax with the Northern Political Summit giving its imprimatur against the backdrop of protests at the venue of the event opposing the outcome of the summit.

The expected endorsement at the Kaduna summit on Thursday by a section of the northern political elite of President Jonathan’s aspiration to extend his term beyond 2011, rather than douse the tension in the polity, appeared to have only succeeded in heightening it, thereby widening the divide separating the equally formidable opposing sides.
Long before the summit, some of its leading proponents had at various times individually betrayed their inkling, therefore removing from its outcome any element of novelty. Ranking chieftains of PDP such as pioneer chairman, Chief Solomon Lar, another former chairman, Chief Barnabas Gemade, former Secretary Board of Trustees and Information Minister, Professor Jerry Gana and Wakilin Adamawa  Alhaji Hasan Adamu, among others, had variously expressed reservation about the rational of retaining the PDP’s zoning agreement which shares power between north and south on rotational basis. This, the Northern Political Forum, which boats among its members the likes of former Military President General Ibrahim Babangida, former Vice President Atiku bAbubakar, former Inspector General of Police, Muhammad Dikko Yusuf and former Finance and Agriculture Minister Malam Adamu Chiroma, among others, disagrees with as it insists on the retention of the zoning agreement which was ratified by an extended caucus of the PDP in 2002.
On the surface, the two principal groups are without doubt unequally marched, with the pro- zoning NPF seeming the more formidable than the anti-zoning NPF.  Where then does the later drive its strength and courage of conviction from?
With the death of Yar’adua on May 5, 2010, the zoning agreement came under serious bashing, with a section of the political elite denying its validity insisting that on its basis Jonathan can not be barred from contesting the 2011 presidential election.
First to come out against the zoning formula was former President Olusegun Obasanjo and chairman of the PDP Board of Trustees, who, in an interview in far away United States   claimed that the nation’s presidency had never been zoned to any part of the country. The PDP’s zoning arrangement,  Obasanjo insisted, was effective only in 1999.
A group of northern youths under the aegis of Arewa Youth Democratic Alliance issued a press statement recently calling on northern elements supporting Jonathan to either desist from such or be ready to face the wrath of the youths. The group said it abhorred any attempt at abandoning the zoning agreement of the PDP.

The pro-Jonathan men

Olusegun Obasanjo
He remains a strong bastion of support for the president as he declared that Jonathan is free to contest the 2011 election. Even before the death of Yar’adua in May 2010, the former president had always been accused of plotting to ensure the eventual emergence of Jonathan as president. The anti-Obasanjo elements had accused the Ota farmer of foisting a sick man on the country with the aim of ensuring a smooth transition of power to the south in the event of Yar’adua’s death.
With the eventual demise of the Yar’adua,  Obasanjo’s wish to have  Jonathan mount the throne came to pass.   
As Chairman of the Board of Trustees, the former military head of state is now the subterranean arrowhead for the Jonathan 2011 presidential bid.

T.Y. Danjuma
Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma. He has never held any elective office. However, his glistering career in the military that saw him become the Chief of Army Staff under Obasanjo’s military administration in the late 1970s, and Minister of Defence in 1999 as well as personal integrity make him a virtual kingmaker.
His link to the pro-Jonathan campaign may not be as obvious as Obasanjo’s but his appointment as chairman of the Presidential Advisory Council says a lot about  where his sympathy lies. Add to this the closeness of rabid Jonathan henchmen as Hassan Adamu and Jerry Gana, then you can get a more complete drummer for the Jonathan campaign.

Tony Anenih
He was a strong supporter of the late Yar’adua but quickly switched loyalty to Jonathan after the demise of the former Katsina governor. As a former PDP BoT Chairman, the former policeman is never one to be caught in the wrong camp.
Though he is yet to come out categorically on his support for the Jonathan project, Anenih has been quoted as supporting the view expressed by Obasanjo that the PDP had jettisoned the zoning arrangement. Though generally seen as losing relevance on account of the emergence of Governor Adams Oshiomhole of the Action Congress (AC) in his home state of Edo, the wily politician may yet team up with the former president to partner in the political battle over who emerges triumphant in the 2011 presidential election.

Samaila Sambawa
He is the chairman of the Goodluck Support Group and a strong advocate for the president to contest the 2011 election. Samaila Sambawa, who is former a minister during the Obasanjo years remains a prominent northerner in the battle to pressure Jonathan contest in 2011.
The former minister, apart from opening an office in Abuja, is believed to be reaching out across the country to other stakeholders on the need to support the president. Attempts by Peoples Daily to speak to him have proved futile as he was always said to be away attending crucial meetings.
An aide of the former minister promised to facilitate an interview, a promise he was however unable to deliver.

Governor Jonah Jang
Governor David Jang has declared his support for Jonathan and promised to deliver the state to the presidency. His action may be hinged on the running battle he had with late President Umaru Musa Yar’adua over the intermittent Jos crises. There was clearly no love lost between the two before the death of Yar’adua. The emergence of Jonathan thus afforded the Plateau state governor the opportunity to launch back to reckoning among his colleagues even as he wasted no time to declare his total support for Jonathan.
As it stands, Jang is set to be among those canvassing support for Jonathan within both the Northern Governors’ Forum and the Nigeria Governors’ Forum.

Malam Nasir el-Rufai

The former minister of the Federal Capital Territory has always insisted that Jonathan had the right to contest next year’s election. However, critics of the former minister, who gained notoriety through demolition, are quick to state that he is only trying to warm his way back to the corridors of power.
The former minister, who had been an acerbic critic of Yar’adua’s style of administration, had go on a self-imposed exile to escape prosecution over the sale of the Federal Government Houses. He was accused by the Senate Committee of the FCT of having short-changed the government to the tune of N32 billion. But despite his vocal visibility, El Rufa’i, seen as ‘Obasanjo’s good boy,’ is written off as light weight who would add little value to Jonathan’s campaign in the north.

South-South governors
As someone from the region, Jonathan is sure to have most of his support from the region. Already, Governor Timi Sylva is said to be coordinating efforts aimed at enhancing the chances of the president should he decide to throw his hat in the ring. Sylva was recently quoted as having declared that the South-South will have no option than to support Jonathan to contest the 2011 presidential election.

Edwin Clark
Clark has become a regular visitor to the Aso Presidential Villa since Yar’adua’s death. His closeness to the Jonathans came into bold relief recently when the presidency held a birthday party for him. As a champion of the oil-rich region, Clark has since dared the north to stop Jonathan in 2011.
As an elder statesman from the south-south, Clark has remained unrelenting in calling for the enthronement of justice for minorities in the oil-rich region.

Waiting for the endgame
There is no doubting the fact that Jonathan’s support for the 2011 is gathering momentum with the passage of each day. But with groups rising also in the north to demand for the adherence of the zoning arrangement, a clear picture is nowhere near the horizon. The Northern governors have suspended announcing a decision on zoning and with the pro-Jonathan forces making tremendous strides into north, the north may as yet remain divided for now.

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